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{"id":16367,"date":"2020-12-10T13:21:26","date_gmt":"2020-12-10T13:21:26","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/businessecon.org\/?p=16367"},"modified":"2023-08-08T19:03:38","modified_gmt":"2023-08-08T19:03:38","slug":"value-investing-principle-3-financial-analysis-lesson-8","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/valueinvestingnow.com\/2020\/12\/value-investing-principle-3-financial-analysis-lesson-8","title":{"rendered":"Value Investing \u2013 Principle #3: Financial Analysis (Lesson 8)"},"content":{"rendered":"

Value Investing – Principle #3: Financial Analysis (Lesson 8)<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/h1>\n

\"Financial<\/a><\/p>\n

Changing the direction of a large company is like trying to turn an aircraft carrier. It takes a mile before anything happens. And if it was a wrong turn, getting back on course takes even longer. – <\/span><\/strong><\/span>Al Ries<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Large behemoth corporations are like aircraft carriers, given their enormous size, it takes tremendous amounts of resources to stop or even slow them down. In addition, if you want to change their trajectory even slightly, it still takes significant energy to implement this course correction. This is why highly stable organizations such as the top 2,000 companies can maintain their profitability. Their missions are figuratively set in stone. Any desire to add or delete product lines or implement new processes must go through a rigorous review by multiple levels of management before implementation. The thinking is simple, ‘Why change a good thing?’.<\/span><\/p>\n

Thus, the number one overall force that impacts the stock price of large corporations is the economy as a whole. The DOW companies are greatly effected by the economy and rarely are their stocks’ price directly tied to a failure within their overall corporate organization. This was covered to some extent in Lesson 3<\/span><\/strong><\/a> about market fluctuations. In addition, industry wide issues impact a company’s stock price more so than company financial results. A perfect example is the oil industry. Middle Eastern political actions often affect an oil company’s stock price to a greater degree than the company’s own internal financial results when reported.<\/span><\/p>\n

This leads into the usefulness financial analysis generates for value investors. It sets up a predictable and reasonable market price for the respective stock. This becomes the sell price point or what is often referred to in this series of lessons as the recovery point. If all three forces (economic, industry and company level) are performing reasonably, then the stock price for the company will recover to this sell point. Therefore, it is important for value investors to understand the importance of having knowledge about financial analysis.<\/span><\/p>\n

Financial analysis is an assessment of a company’s performance in the form of dollars. The goal is to establish a trend line of financial accomplishments. It is safe to assume that the historical results can predict future results with accuracy. Again, large corporations are money generating machines; it will take several adverse actions to slow down or diminish the ability to earn profits.<\/span><\/p>\n

Financial analysis starts with gathering research data, specifically annual and the most recent quarterly financial reports. With this information, certain data is loaded into a spreadsheet so that ratios can be derived. With spreadsheet data, trends are tracked and from there, summarized. This summary of pertinent outcomes assist the value investor with determining the most likely outcomes for the next several quarters. Take note, value investors are not as interested in extended time frames as this methodology is designed to determine an expected recovery value for the stock. Value investors are not interested in holding to collect dividends, they are interested in the buy low, sell high tenet of business<\/span><\/strong><\/a>. Thus, long-term expectations are irrelevant.<\/span><\/p>\n

Other key information is extracted from the quarterly and annual reports to confirm trends, validate business ratios and finally, determine the expected market recovery price.<\/span><\/p>\n

This lesson first introduces the member to data gathering, i.e. where to go to get the information necessary. In the second section below, certain key financial points are essential to understand; this section will cover the five most important bits of data and why they are so instrumental with having a fundamental understanding of financial performance. The third section illustrates a simple summarized report for a publicly traded company and explains how these five key financial data points are interpreted for the purpose of setting the sell point. In the fourth section below, the lesson covers the importance of business ratios when comparing multiple members within a pool of investments. Finally, all of it is summed up with trending analysis. The last section covers additional information, specifically key performance indicators<\/span><\/strong><\/a>. No two industries are alike, thus key performance indicators are industry standards and it is explained how to discover the respective industry performance indicators.<\/span><\/p>\n

In Phase Two of this program, all of these elements of financial analysis are covered in greater detail. The goal is to get the member to develop their own investment pool of five to eight potential investments within the same industry. With this introduction, members will gain the needed confidence to not only find the data, but how to organize and begin to interpret the information.<\/span><\/p>\n

Value Investing – Gathering Data<\/span><\/strong><\/h2>\n

Gathering information related to any publicly traded company is not difficult; but it is somewhat cumbersome. There are three key sources of information. The first and required by law is the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). The second and most often used resource is the company’s website. The third source is more of an indirect resource as it sources its information from both the SEC and the company’s website. But in addition, these third party resources also use write-ups, articles and industry affiliations as a additional material. The most common third party resource is a brokerage dashboard via your broker account. The following explain all three in more detail and how you go about gathering this information.<\/span><\/p>\n

Securities and Exchange Commission<\/span><\/strong><\/h3>\n

Under federal law, all publicly traded companies must report activity to the Securities and Exchange Commission. In general, there are three common reporting requirements that pertain to stockholders. The other forms of reporting do have some bearing, but are generally ignored due to the fact they are more legal compliance than financial in nature. The top three submitted reports are denoted by their form number.<\/span><\/p>\n

    \n
  1. Form 8-K<\/strong> – This particular report reflects any information that may affect the stock of the company. For example, if upper management stock options or management trades occur, it is reported with this report. Other examples of 8-K information include:<\/span>\n