Coca-Cola<\/a><\/span><\/strong> stock. The current market price is $62 per share. ‘S’ firmly believes that Coke’s market price will dip or stay at or lower than the current market price for the next three months. ‘S’ sells a CALL option (contract) to anyone for a strike price of $68 per share on Coke for $3 per share, i.e. 100 shares at $3 each or $300. The strike price is $68 per share and the expiration date is three months out. A Buyer (‘B’) firmly believes that Coke will hit $74 per share within three months. ‘B’ pays $300 to have a right to buy Coke at $68 per share and is willing to wait the three months to see what unfolds. During this three month period, Coke’s share price fluctuates from $59 per share to as high as $66 per share. There are now two weeks remaining to the expiration date. This CALL option has dropped in value to 50 cents per share and the current market price is $66 per share. ‘B’ can continue to wait it out or elect to sell this contract for $50 (100 shares at 50 cents each) and just end up losing $250 in total. ‘B’ elects to get out of the option contract and proceeds to sell it for $50 (50 cents\/share). The new buyer (‘B2’) now has a contract with the original seller with two weeks remaining. Suddenly the market price for Coke soars to $77 in less than three days. ‘B2’ knows a good thing when it happens and proceeds to exercise the option and purchases from the seller 100 shares of Coke for $6,800 (100 shares at $68\/each). ‘B2’s total investment into Coke is $6,850 ($6,800 paid for the stock and $50 for the option). The current market price is $7,700; ‘B2’ immediately sells the 100 shares of Coke and realizes an $850 profit from the overall deal. ‘S’ did earn $6,800 from the sale of shares of Coke and also earned $300 from the sale of the CALL option for a total amount of $7,100. ‘B’ lost $250. ‘B’ took a risk and lost some money, ‘S’ also took some risk associated with the difference between $7,100 and the final market price of $7,700. ‘S’ lost out on $600 had they waited it out. However, ‘S’ is risk averse and preferred to get their $6,800 plus a $300 premium for selling the CALL optio<\/span>n.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\nThe graph below depicts the overall financial relationship for the two parties. The strike price is the core ‘win’ or ‘lose’ crossover point. On the left of this crossover point of the market price, the seller of the CALL wins the bet outright as long as the market price does not crossover the strike price point. The area between the strike price and where the net payoff line cross at the market price point is the ‘marginal’ exchange range. Using the example above, this is that $3 range between the strike price of $68 and the value the seller earns of a marginal $3 ($71 market price for the stock). If the buyer exercises the CALL option when the market price is $69.25, the seller earns $68 for the sale of the stock plus $3 for the sale of the CALL. In this $3 zone, the seller is technically the winner of the ‘side bet’. <\/span>As the market price transitions past $69.50 per share, the buyer of the CALL now begins to gain a better overall financial situation, the buyer is still paying more overall in this transition zone as the total cost of $71 still exceeds the market price value. But once that market price exceeds $71 per share, the buyer of the CALL is in a superior financial position and is now winning the bet.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\nOne final pertinent part of this overall situation. The exercising of the option only occurs if the buyer is going to sell the security to a third party to reap the reward between their cost of $71 (the price paid for the stock and the option). It is rare for the buyer to exercise the option and then just hold the security. They can do this, especially if there is some significant dividend announcement during this time frame. While the market price is in that ‘marginal’ zone, the buyer’s risk is elevated as it becomes difficult to decide the best course of action; does the buyer wait or act? This is where adequate information as to what is happening not only in the market, but within the industry and at the company level comes into play. In most cases, unless there is a sudden dramatic price increase in the securities market price, buyers opt to wait it out. Time benefits them. As the price transitions through this ‘marginal’ zone, if the expiration date is not close, waiting is prudent. After all, this is what the buyer desired when paying for this option.<\/span><\/p>\nPayoff on a CALL Option<\/span><\/strong><\/span>“Option Pricing Theory and Models” – Chapter 5\u00a0<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\nNeither ‘B’ nor ‘B2’ are obligated to buy the shares from ‘S’; the option contract is a RIGHT to buy them. ‘B’ or ‘B2’ could at any time, no matter what the market price is, elect to buy the shares at $68 each. Even if the market price is $66 per share, the buyer can elect to buy the stock right then. Of course, a prudent money manager would not do that; but, they still own the right.<\/span><\/p>\nThe one party at most risk of financial loss is of course the seller of the CALL option. They may be force to sell that stock and lose out on all that upper market price range (the area exceeding $71 per share in value in the graph above). Thus, sellers of CALLs risk significant POTENTIAL reward if market price jumps. In effect, a seller is exchanging potential high reward for a more secure financial position, in this case $68 per share. Both buyers, ‘B’ and ‘B2’, risked the market price decreasing and as such only risked their investment into the option contract; i.e. their maximum financial risk is the amount paid to buy the CALL. Think of it this way, they are leveraging their bet with a little money that the particular stock will suddenly soar in value (win the game and hopefully win big) and get a high return on their overall small investment. Remember, they will have to put out money to buy the shares; but immediately, they would turn around and resell those shares at this current high market price.\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\nPUT Options<\/span>\u00a0<\/strong>– With CALL options, the primary driver of value is the overall belief in the market price increasing for the underlying security. The price of a call goes up as market price for the underlying security goes up. This is the opposite for PUT options. PUT values are driven by a decreasing market value. <\/span><\/p>\nWith PUT options, the typical buyer already owns the stock and is fearful the stock’s market price will decline over time and therefore wants to force another party to buy this stock from them at some floor value; a value they are willing to tolerate. This strike price guarantees the holder of the PUT a minimum market price in case of a sudden or slow market decline for the respective stock. For the seller of a PUT option contract, they firmly believe the market price is currently stable or will recover for the respective stock and as such are gambling that the buyer of the PUT will not exercise the contract and force the seller of the PUT to purchase the stock from the buyer (current contract holder). Review the positions and thought process of the two respective bettors:<\/span><\/p>\nBuyer<\/strong> – Owns stock in a particular company and wishes to eliminate their downside risk; i.e. the stock’s market price will drop dramatically or slowly decline over an extended period of time. As such, the buyer of a PUT option contract is willing to pay some kind of premium to minimize their respective potential losses. The closest comparable financial instrument is insurance. With insurance, the asset owner (auto or home as an example) fear that the value will suddenly drop due to some unforeseen accident and as such is willing to pay for insurance to protect that potential value loss. With a financial security, the asset owner is buying a PUT option, a form of insurance, to protect against a sudden or extended market price decline for the asset they own. Note that with typical insurance, insurance protects against acts of God or acts of physical mistakes (auto accidents). Insurance does not protect against declines in market value for a home or auto. PUT options are designed to act as insurance against value decline for the underlying security instrument.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\nSeller<\/strong> – Firmly believes the market price for a particular security will not decrease but either stabilize or improve over time and is willing to sell an option in order to earn some money. The seller sets the strike price well below intrinsic value of the underlying security involved. This reduces the chance the particular security will continue to decline in value over time. As an example, look at this pricing structure for a PUT option on The Walt Disney Company. The intrinsic value is estimated at $116 per share, the current market price is at $100 per share; thus, the market price is already 14% less than intrinsic value. The chances the share price for The Walt Disney Company continues decreasing are remote. Naturally, there is a greater chance it will decrease to $95 per share than to $90 per share. Thus, the price for a PUT option is more expensive at $95 per share due to the risk it will be exercised at $95 than $90 per share.<\/span><\/p>\n <\/span><\/p>\nNotice how even at $60 per share strike price with a three month expiration date, there is some interest (161 buyers have indicated a desire to buy a contract) to buy a PUT option in the market. These buyers have indicated that they are willing to pay 32 cents per share to have insurance that their Disney stock could be sold to someone if that market price goes below $60 per share. The key to this chart is that there is less and less risk of Disney’s share price continuing to drop further and further as first, the open interest in insurance wanes and the price buyers are willing to pay drops dramatically too.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\nExample<\/strong> – Seller (‘S’) is convinced Disney has hit rock bottom in market price due to several underlying reasons. First, it is a rock solid company and is traded as a DOW Industrials member. Secondly, the company’s revenue and net profits are significant and have improved over the last three years. Third, the real driver of this current decline is the overall mindset in the market which is experiencing declines. ‘S’ is highly confident that the market price will not dip below $90 per share and as such is willing to sell a PUT option contract for 100 shares at $4 per share or $400 for the entire contract. There are currently 2,486 buyers interested in purchasing a contract to force the seller to buy Disney at $90 per share. One of them enters into this arrangement. The buyer (‘B’) purchases from ‘S’ this PUT option. The strike price is $90 per share with an expiration date of 09\/16\/2022.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\nOver the next month, Disney’s stock price waivers, ebbing and flowing, and begins to creep back up towards $110 per share. In late July, Disney releases their financial results and to everyone’s surprise they didn’t perform as well as they predicted. The market price dips to $89 per share. At this point, ‘B’ has the right to force ‘S’ to buy the stock from ‘B’. ‘B’ decides to wait a little longer, after all, ‘B’ has until September 16th to force the ‘S’ to oblige the terms of the contract. ‘S’ isn’t nervous yet because ‘S’ is convinced this is a temporary setback. In early August, Disney releases a new Pixar movie and it becomes the number one summer hit and earns more than $200 Million in one weekend. On Monday morning, Disney’s stock price improves due to this batch of good news and goes back up to $95 per share. The price continues to improve as more good news comes out of Disney’s information center that their subscriptions to the their Disney+ channel are exceeding their expectations. The price of Disney’s stock soars to $112 per share and never looks back as the expiration date finally expires. ‘S’ did indeed earn $400 and was only truly at risk for a few days. ‘B’ paid $400 to protect his investment in Disney and at one point could have forced ‘S’ to buy the stock from ‘B’.<\/span><\/p>\nTake note of the financial relationship with PUT options. The seller’s risk only exists if the market price goes below the strike price. Even then, that risk doesn’t actually exist until the market price drops below the strike price less the sales price of the PUT option. In the above example, ‘S’ isn’t really at risk until the price drops below $86 per share. At that point, if ‘B’ exercises the option, ‘S’ has to pay $90 per share and own Disney. Thus, the total amount out of pocket for ‘S’ is $86 per share ($90 per share paid to own the stock less $4 per share for the option sold). If the market price continues to slide further lower, ‘S’ will experience an unrealized loss for the difference. This is important, ‘S’ has yet to realize an actual loss because in order to realize an actual loss, ‘S’ would have to sell the stock at a price lower than ‘S’s basis which is currently $86 per share. ‘S’ can simply wait it out and hope the market price will recover in a short period of time.<\/span><\/p>\nThis is an important aspect as a seller of PUT options. As a seller you only realize losses IF you sell the stock you were forced to buy at a price lower than the net realized basis in your investment ($86 in the above example). Look at this graphical depiction to help clear up this viewpoint:<\/span><\/p>\n <\/span><\/p>\nPayoff on a PUT Option<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\nThe risk for the buyer is the area to the right of the Strike Price. As for the seller, the risk factor starts when the market price for the security is less than the Strike Price. As the market price crosses over the net realized value (strike price less the value derived from the sale of the PUT – $86 from the above example), the seller’s risk begins to increase financially from zero to the difference between the net realized amount (strike price less sale’s price of PUT options) and the current market price because the current owner of the option may force the ‘S’ to buy the shares at the Strike Price. The further the decline in market price, the more likely the buyer of the option will exercise the agreement and force the seller to pay the strike price.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\nRemember, the buyer has until the expiration date to force the hand of the seller. It is possible and often common for the market price to dip well below the strike price and the buyer continues to wait it out. The buyer has time on their side in this set of conditions. Their risk of financial loss is practically zero in this situation and often they will just wait to see what happens.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n